BIGCAPITAL's Blog

February 8, 2011

Sterling Jumps on Improved Sentiment

Filed under: Uncategorized — bigcapital @ 9:38 am
Tags: , , , , , , , ,

 

Sterling Jumps on Improved Sentiment

Tuesday, February 8, 2011
http://marketpin.blogspot.com/

The Pound has made gains today across the majority of the most actively traded currencies. Gains can be attributed to improved sentiment driving the market. For the last couple of weeks the pound has suffered from negative sentiment caused by very poor Q4 GDP figures for 2010. The reversal has however been driven by last week’s better than expected UK manufacturing and services sector news. Markets are also guessing that interest rates in the UK could rise sooner than previously expected with potentially three incremental rises in 2011.

The Pound has consolidated its gains in trade this afternoon as investors become coy ahead of the BoE rate announcement. Markets widely accept that it is unlikely that the Bank of England will make any adjustments to current monetary policy. If this is the case, traders focus will then shift to the minutes at the end of the month to help second guess when we might see the first interest rate hike of the year. Most analysts predict that the Bank of England will adopt a ‘wait and see’ approach and wait until May for the Q1 GDP figures for 2011.

Inflation in the UK remains a risk and is the reason for heightened interest rate expectations. Inflation is expected to continue to rise in the short term and could pose a significant threat to the UK economy if not dealt with properly by the Bank of England. The problem is however that any rise in interest rates could put the stoppers on the UK economic recovery and trigger another recession. The Bank of England therefore faces a very difficult task in balancing the risks to economic growth with inflationary pressures.

The Euro has suffered in the last week with the S&P downgrading Ireland’s credit rating. This has fuelled ongoing concerns of Sovereign Debt contagion throughout Europe. The GBP/EUR pair has jumped from a low of 1.1531 on the 26th January to 1.1920 in trade today. This 3.5% move is a significant recovery and could see a subsequent upward move with sufficient momentum through the psychological 1.20 level.

Factory orders in Germany weakened for the first time in three months today. Demand slipped 3.4% in December almost 2% worse than expected. A slowdown in Germany will drag on the Euro exchange rate as investors see this powerhouse as part of the Euro’s core strength.

The Dollar has seen mixed price action today, most traders expect the market to consolidate yet remain above the psychological 1.60 level. Similar to the expectation on GBP/EUR we would expect GBP/USD to rally if we see an indication that the Bank of England will normalise monetary policy with a series of interest rate hikes this year.

http://marketpin.blogspot.com/

Advertisements

September 15, 2010

Japan Intervenes To Weaken Yen And Warns Of More

JPY yen

Japan intervenes to weaken yen and warns of more

Japan sold yen in the market on Wednesday for the first time in six years and promised more to come in a bid to stop the currency’s relentless rise from hurting exporters and threatening a fragile economic recovery.

Fresh after victory in a party leadership contest, Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan appeared to be stepping up efforts to wrench the country out of deflation by targeting yen strength, which has weighed on stock prices and corporate profits.

Estimates varied on how much Japan has spent in its first intervention in the foreign exchange market since 2003-2004, when its forked out 35 trillion yen ($409 billion).

Dealers suggested Wednesday’s intervention amounted to about 300-500 billion yen ($3.6-$6 billion), though some reports put it closer to 100 billion yen.

The U.S. dollar was boosted further after an official at Japan’s Ministry of Finance said intervention was not finished. It climbed about 3 percent on the day to more than 85.50 yen, having dropped to a 15-year low of 82.87 yen earlier.

Unlike in previous intervention, the Bank of Japan will not drain the money flowing into the economy as a result of the yen selling, sources familiar with the matter said.

That indicated the central bank plans to use the sold yen as a monetary tool to boost liquidity and support the economy.

Authorities that sell their own currencies to weaken them often issue bills to “sterilize” the funds and keep the excess money from becoming inflationary. In Japan’s case, it wants to promote inflation since the economy has been dogged with deflation for much of the past decade

The central bank may follow up with additional steps, such as buying more government debt, economists said.

“SYMPATHY”

Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who will reportedly keep his post after a cabinet reshuffle, indicated Tokyo acted alone on the yen. He said he was in contact with authorities overseas and analysts expected Japan to be spared international criticism.

“Japan will be seen as a special case,” said Simon Flint, global head of foreign exchange research with Nomura in Singapore. “Obviously, its economy has been in significant trouble for a while, stocks have been depressed for some time, export performance relative to the Asian peer group has been very weak,” he said.

“To some degree there will be some sympathy in the rest of the world for Japan’s predicament.”

U.S. officials at the Federal Reserve and the Treasury declined immediate comment.

Analysts doubted whether Kan’s government was ready for a protracted battle with markets similar to the 15-month yen selling spree earlier this decade since that campaign prove ineffective at halting the yen’s strength for long.

WILL THE YEN STOP RISING?

Kan’s government has been trying to talk down the yen as it strengthened beyond 90 per dollar

“The government probably wanted to stamp out those views. But the question is: Will the yen stop rising from here? It’s not clear.”

USD/JPY’s recovery from around the session lows of 85.00 comes as a Japanese government official confirms the MOF/BOJ has intervened in European markets Wednesday

* Japan PM Kan: Intervened in fx because yen reached level where action was needed.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance said intervention was not finished. Japanese news agency Kyodo cited a ministry official saying Japan had intervened in European markets and will intervene in New York trading hours if need be.

www.Intermoney.org – Market Talk

Wednesday. September 15, 2010

UPDATE: 07:25 ET (11:25 GMT)

Blog at WordPress.com.