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February 8, 2011

Sterling Jumps on Improved Sentiment

Filed under: Uncategorized — bigcapital @ 9:38 am
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Sterling Jumps on Improved Sentiment

Tuesday, February 8, 2011
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The Pound has made gains today across the majority of the most actively traded currencies. Gains can be attributed to improved sentiment driving the market. For the last couple of weeks the pound has suffered from negative sentiment caused by very poor Q4 GDP figures for 2010. The reversal has however been driven by last week’s better than expected UK manufacturing and services sector news. Markets are also guessing that interest rates in the UK could rise sooner than previously expected with potentially three incremental rises in 2011.

The Pound has consolidated its gains in trade this afternoon as investors become coy ahead of the BoE rate announcement. Markets widely accept that it is unlikely that the Bank of England will make any adjustments to current monetary policy. If this is the case, traders focus will then shift to the minutes at the end of the month to help second guess when we might see the first interest rate hike of the year. Most analysts predict that the Bank of England will adopt a ‘wait and see’ approach and wait until May for the Q1 GDP figures for 2011.

Inflation in the UK remains a risk and is the reason for heightened interest rate expectations. Inflation is expected to continue to rise in the short term and could pose a significant threat to the UK economy if not dealt with properly by the Bank of England. The problem is however that any rise in interest rates could put the stoppers on the UK economic recovery and trigger another recession. The Bank of England therefore faces a very difficult task in balancing the risks to economic growth with inflationary pressures.

The Euro has suffered in the last week with the S&P downgrading Ireland’s credit rating. This has fuelled ongoing concerns of Sovereign Debt contagion throughout Europe. The GBP/EUR pair has jumped from a low of 1.1531 on the 26th January to 1.1920 in trade today. This 3.5% move is a significant recovery and could see a subsequent upward move with sufficient momentum through the psychological 1.20 level.

Factory orders in Germany weakened for the first time in three months today. Demand slipped 3.4% in December almost 2% worse than expected. A slowdown in Germany will drag on the Euro exchange rate as investors see this powerhouse as part of the Euro’s core strength.

The Dollar has seen mixed price action today, most traders expect the market to consolidate yet remain above the psychological 1.60 level. Similar to the expectation on GBP/EUR we would expect GBP/USD to rally if we see an indication that the Bank of England will normalise monetary policy with a series of interest rate hikes this year.

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November 12, 2010

Bond guru says Fed actions will cause the dollar to drop 20%

Filed under: Uncategorized — bigcapital @ 8:49 am
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Bond guru says Fed actions will cause the dollar to drop 20%

 

You’ve probably seen financial guru Bill Gross on CNBC. He’s been called the Warren Buffett of bonds, he’s the brains behind the incredible growth of Pimco and manager of the world’s largest mutual fund, and he thinks the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing is going to cause the dollar to collapse by another 20%.

 

 

NEWPORT BEACH, CALIFORNIA: The dollar is in danger of losing 20 percent of its value over the next few years if the Federal Reserve continues unconventional monetary easing, Bill Gross , the manager of the world’s largest mutual fund, said on Monday.

 

“I think a 20 percent decline in the dollar is possible,” Gross said, adding the pace of the currency’s decline was also an important consideration for investors.

 

“When a central bank prints trillions of dollars of checks, which is not necessarily what (a second round of quantitative easing) will do in terms of the amount, but if it gets into that territory — that is a debasement of the dollar in terms of the supply of dollars on a global basis,” Gross told Reuters in an interview at his PIMCO headquarters.

 

The Fed will probably begin a new round of monetary easing this week by announcing a plan to buy at least $600 billion of long-term securities, what investors and traders refer to as QE II, according to a Reuters poll of primary dealers.

 

“US quantitative easing may mean 20 percent dollar drop”: Gross

September 26, 2010

US Not Aware Of Deficit Dangers, Canada is better than the US

 

US Not Aware Of Deficit Dangers, Canada is better than the US

 

Taleb Says Unawareness of Deficit Risk Has Him `Extremely Bearish’ on U.S

 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” said he’s concerned budget deficits in the U.S. are spiraling out of control and may now represent a bigger problem than in countries such as Greece.

“The U.S. is probably the worst of all,” Taleb told Canada’s BNN television network in an interview today. “They are addicted to debt. We have an administration that, unlike the European administrations, is not aware of the risks of mounting deficits, of the addiction to public deficits and to big government.”

Taleb told the cable network, “People are complaining about Greece, but Greece has the IMF putting some discipline in their system. Who can discipline the U.S. government?”

Greece this year has imposed a series of austerity measures, including wage and pension cuts and higher sales taxes, in exchange for a 110 billion-euro ($148 billion) rescue from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. U.S. President Barack Obama inherited what the National Bureau of Economic Research said this week was the deepest U.S. recession since the Great Depression. The government’s outstanding debt is about $13.5 trillion, according to Treasury figures.

Risks to the global financial system are much larger than before the September 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Taleb said.

‘Making Things Worse’

“People still don’t understand why we had the crisis and they don’t realize that we are making things worse,” he said. “We still have the same level of debt but we are transforming private debt into public debt. We are socializing these risks, and the system has fewer people employed. So we have a lot more risks than we did in 2007.”

Taleb, in Montreal today to give a speech to a group of business people, said Canada’s fiscal situation makes the country a safer investment than its southern neighbor.

Canada has the lowest ratio of net debt to gross domestic product among the Group of Seven industrialized countries and will keep that distinction until at least 2014, the finance department said in its March budget documents. Canada’s ratio, 24 percent in 2007, will rise to about 30 percent by 2014. The U.S. ratio, now above 40 percent, will top 80 percent in four years, the department said, citing IMF data.

“I am extremely bearish on the U.S.,” he said. “I am more bullish on Canada. Canada is much more robust than the U.S. You guys have much less debt, much more manageable risks.”

Taleb wrote the 2007 best-seller “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable,” which argues that history is littered with rare, high-impact events. The black-swan theory stems from the ancient misconception that all swans were white.

As the founder of New York-based Empirica LLC, a hedge-fund firm he ran for six years before closing it in 2004, Taleb built a strategy based on options trading to protect investors from market declines while profiting from rallies. He now advises Universa Investments LP, a Santa Monica, California-based fund that bets on extreme market moves.

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